Aircraft safety analysis using clustering algorithms

In recent years, there have been many cost-benefit studies on aviation safety, which deal mainly with economic issues, omitting some strictly technical aspects. This study compares aircraft accidents in relation to the characteristics of the aircraft, environmental conditions, route, and traffic type. The study was conducted using a database of over 1500 aircraft accidents worldwide, occurring between 1985 and 2010. The data were processed and then aggregated into groups, using cluster analysis based on an algorithm of partition binary ‘Hard c means.’ For each cluster, the ‘cluster representative’ accident was identified as the average of all the different characteristics of the accident. Moreover, a ‘hazard index’ was defined for each cluster (according to annual movements); using this index, it was possible to establish the dangerousness of each ‘cluster’ in terms of aviation accidents. Obtained results allowed the construction of an easy-to-use predictive model for accidents using multivariate analysis.     

A general closed-form spread option pricing formula

We propose a new accurate method for pricing European spread options by extending the lower bound approximation of Bjerksund and Stensland (2011) beyond the classical Black–Scholes framework. This is possible via a procedure requiring a univariate Fourier inversion. In addition, we are also able to obtain a new tight upper bound. Our method provides also an exact closed form solution via Fourier inversion of the exchange option price, generalizing the Margrabe (1978) formula. The method is applicable to models in which the joint characteristic function of the underlying assets forming the spread is known analytically. We test the performance of these new pricing algorithms performing numerical experiments on different stochastic dynamic models.     

Procedural fairness in lotteries assigning initial roles in a dynamic setting

We extend the study of procedural fairness in three new directions. Firstly, we focus on lotteries determining the initial roles in a two-person game. One of the roles carries a potential advantage over the other. All the experimental literature has thus far focused on lotteries determining the final payoffs of a game. Secondly, we modify procedural fairness in a dynamic—i.e. over several repetitions of a game—as well as in a static—i.e. within a single game-sense. Thirdly, we analyse whether assigning individuals a minimal chance of achieving an advantaged position is enough to make them willing to accept substantially more inequality. We find that procedural fairness matters under all of these accounts. Individuals clearly respond to the degree of fairness in assigning initial roles, appraise contexts that are dynamically fair more positively than contexts that are not, and are generally more willing to accept unequal outcomes when they are granted a minimal opportunity to acquire the advantaged position. Unexpectedly, granting full equality of opportunity does not lead to the highest efficiency.     

Trade liberalization and the wage gap: the role of vertical linkages and fixed costs

This paper studies the labor market impacts of trade liberalization, and specifically tariff reductions, with a focus on the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers in presence of vertical linkages in the fixed costs of production. To that purpose, we develop and empirically test a monopolistic competition model with variable elasticity of substitution and labor differentiated by skill level, where skilled workers are the residual claimants of savings on imported inputs. Consistently with the model predictions, we find that a 10% reduction in tariffs implies on average a 3.8% increase in the wage gap. In addition, the same level of tariff reduction is expected to lower unskilled employment in domestic production by 3.3%, which is partially offset by an expansion of unskilled employment in the export segment of production. These results are obtained matching detailed international trade data with World Input–Output Tables and EU KLEMS data on country-sector wage by skill level on 17 OECD countries from 1996 to 2005.     

The social value of public information with costly information acquisition

In a beauty contest framework, public authorities decide the accuracy of public information evaluating how it affects individual actions and private information acquisition. More precise public information increases welfare whenever its marginal cost does not exceed that of private information.     

Consumers’ attitudes,trust and willingness to pay for food information

Market failure can be corrected using different regulatory approaches ranging from high to low intervention. Recently, classic regulations have been criticized as costly and economically irrational, and thus, policy makers are giving more consideration to soft regulatory techniques such as information remedies. However, despite the plethora of food information conveyed by different media there appears to be a lack of studies exploring how consumers evaluate this information and how trust towards publishers influence their choices for food information. In order to fill such a gap, this study investigates questions related to topics that are more relevant to consumers, who should disseminate trustful food information, and how communication should be conveyed and segmented. Primary data were collected both through qualitative (in‐depth interviews and focus groups) and quantitative research (web and mail surveys). Attitudes, willingness to pay (WTP) for food information and trust towards public and private sources conveying information through a new food magazine were assessed using both multivariate statistical methods and econometric analysis. The study shows that consumer attitudes towards food information topics can be summarized along three cognitive‐affective dimensions: the agro‐food system, enjoyment and wellness. Information related to health risks caused by nutritional disorders and food safety issues caused by bacteria and chemical substances is the most important for about 90% of respondents. Food information related to regulations and traditions is also considered important for more than two‐thirds of respondents, whereas information about food production and processing techniques, lifestyle and food fads are considered less important by the majority of respondents. Trust towards food information disseminated by public bodies is higher than that observed for private bodies. This behaviour directly affects WTP for food information provided by public and private publishers when markets are shocked by a food safety incident. WTP for consumer association (€1.80) and the European Food Safety Authority (€1.30) are higher than WTP for the independent and food industry publishers that cluster around zero euro. Furthermore, trust towards the type of publisher also plays a key role in food information market segmentation together with socio‐demographic and economic variables such as gender, age, presence of children and income. These findings invite policy makers to reflect on the possibility of using information remedies conveyed using trusted sources of information to specific segments of consumers as an interesting soft alternative to the classic way of regulating modern food markets. JEL codes: D12, D18, D89, Q18.     

Measuring the relative development and integration of EU countries’ capital markets using composite indicators and cluster analysis

Review of World Economics - The paper proposes a set of metrics and a methodology to measure the progress that European Union Member States are making towards the development and integration of...     

How firms compete when they set identical prices: Nonprice strategies in the Indian biscuit industry

How do firms compete when all firms in an industry set identical prices? Using Nielsen data on India's biscuit manufacturers, we document productivity-based competition on nonprice strategies under industry-wide uniform pricing. Products with one standard deviation higher quantity-based productivity contain, on average, 13% more quantity per pack for the same price. Productivity also positively correlates with promotions on pack size, availability, and variety. A higher price (per pack size) sensitivity in rural markets combined with industry-wide uniform pricing imposes a greater burden on rural consumers. Additional analyses show that firms can reduce this burden by selling different pack sizes in urban and rural areas.     

Asymmetric Patterns of Demand-Supply Mismatch in Real Estate

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - As expectations change, we may observe asymmetry in responses of economic agents over various phases of the economic cycles. In this paper, we...